Put a date on gas and stop digging a bigger hole for us all to get out of

If Victoria wants to get to zero emissions homes by 2045, it will need about 200 households to switch every day from using gas appliances to all electric ones from now until 2045.

That’s the view of Alison Reeve, Deputy Director of the Energy and Climate Change program at the Grattan Institute, who spoke to the SwitchedOn podcast.

Whilst that might sound like a formidable task, “400 households in Victoria every day are [already] replacing a gas appliance that's broken. So you only have to get half the people at the moment who are replacing broken things [to choose electric] and we will get there well ahead of 2045.”

Assuming gas appliances like cooktops, space heaters and water heaters all have a 15-year lifespan, Reeve says all of Australia could get to zero gas homes by 2045 simply by replacing appliances at the end of their life.

“There's a couple of replacement cycles for appliances between now and 2045. So if you want people to do this, when their existing appliance breaks, you have got a little bit of time, but the thing is that time is reducing everyday,” says Reeve.

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However, Reeve warns that once we get to a point where there are no more replacement cycles left, then governments will need to take draconian measures to get everybody off gas, or accept that they won’t meet their emissions targets.

Reeve says Victoria’s recent decision to ban new gas connections from January 2024 was a necessary step, but they now need to set a date for when there will be no more residential gas in Victoria.

This is the two-stage strategy that the ACT government has adopted to phase out gas from the Territory’s homes and businesses. New gas connections will be banned in the ACT from November 2023, and existing gas connections phased out by 2045.

It’s also the two-stage process the Grattan Institute recommends all governments need to take in their Getting off Gas; Why, How and Who should pay? report, released earlier this year, which Reeve co-wrote.

Setting dates are a clear signal from government about what the long-term future looks like – they enable everyone to plan for the transition.

 “You can actually have a sensible policy conversation about what you need to do, and when, and who's going to do what, and how much money it’s going to take, and who's going to pay. It's very hard to have that conversation if you haven't actually picked a date,” says Reeve.

“If you're in a hole, the first thing you should do is stop digging. A ban on new connections means you're now dealing with a bounded problem. And that's a lot easier for policymakers, and it's also, I think, a lot easier for households.”

Easy to date

Reeve doesn’t underestimate what is needed to transition our homes off gas, but she says the energy transition so far has been relatively easy for householders  – most people's lives haven’t changed, and our houses still function in pretty much the same way.

But the next stage of the transition will ask more from all of us.

“We are now getting into the stuff where it's what you use in your house that is potentially part of the problem. And the change then requires that you do something different.”

“Something like rooftop solar is adding something new and shiny, whereas what we're talking about here is potentially taking away something that you quite like, and replacing it with something that you're not sure that you like,” says Reeve.

Which is why Reeve says we need time to allow people to get used to the idea of change.

She points to how attitudes towards smoking, and the use of sunscreens, needed time to be embraced, and needed governments to help shape and change social norms.

Governments will also have an important role regulating all the electric appliances we will need in our homes.

Currently, new energy efficient electric appliances – induction cooktops, heat pump water heaters, and home heating systems – aren’t regulated in the same way that fridges and washing machines are.

“They don't have a star rating label. They don't have a minimum performance standard. And it's really important to do that, to bring those appliances into that regulatory framework.”

The Energy Rating Label - star rating - which compares the energy efficiency and running costs of different appliances, is regulated by the Australian government and has been around for over 30 years.

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Regulations will help ensure only high-quality electric appliances which perform well are put in Australian homes, and “people aren't putting in cheap and crappy electrical alternatives that don't save them any money,” says Reeve.

It will also ensure “people don't have a bad experience when they switch because one of the things that will really slow this transition down, is if a particular technology gets a bad reputation, because you've had poor quality appliances being installed.”

The full interview with Alison Reeve can be heard on the SwitchedOnAustralia podcast here.